The PAT Model of Population Dynamics

Abstract

We introduce a population-age-time (PAT) model which describes the temporal evolution of the population distribution in age. The surprising result is that the qualitative nature of the population distribution dynamics is robust with respect to the birth rate and death rate distributions in age, and initial conditions. When the number of children born per woman is 2, the population distribution approaches an asymptotically steady state of a kink shape; thus the total population approaches a constant. When the number of children born per woman is greater than 2, the total population increases without bound; and when the number of children born per woman is less than 2, the total population decreases to zero.